Canada requires that the first nine fully operational F-35 fighter jets be delivered no later than 2027, despite delivery orders from other earlier customers.
According to the Ottawa Citizen newspaper, Procurement Minister Filomena Tassi has publicly stated that the first of the stealth fighters could arrive in 2025.
But the mandatory delivery criteria that Lockheed Martin accepted as part of its winning bid stipulate that «the ninth fully mission capable future combat platform will be delivered no earlier than December 1, 2025 and no later than December 1, 2027.»
As we reported in March, the Canadian government plans to buy 88 F-35s, as part of a project that would cost between C$15 billion and C$19 billion (about US$11.5 billion and US$14 billion). Critics of the purchase have pointed out, however, that the full life-cycle cost of the aircraft is estimated at CAD 77 billion (USD 59.475 billion).
The 88th fully operational aircraft would have to be delivered to Canada no later than December 31, 2031, according to documents outlining the mandatory bidding requirements.
Will Lockheed Martin be able to meet the delivery schedule?
However, reasonable doubts arise as to whether Lockheed Martin will be able to meet Canada’s schedule, as other allies are ahead in the delivery queue for fifth-generation aircraft, and there are still unresolved technical issues with the F-35.
Finland, for example, also selected the F-35A to replace its Hornets, and is due to take delivery of 64 future Block 4 aircraft between 2025 and 2030.
See also: Confirmed! Finland also chose the Lockheed Martin F-35
Germany also opted for the F-35 to replace its Panavia Tornado, which is due to be decommissioned in 2030.
Entscheidung zur Tornado-Nachfolge ist getroffen: Mit dem Flugzeugtyp F-35 wird die Aufgabe zur Nuklearen Teilhabe zukünftig gewährleistet bleiben. Ziel ist es, den Tornado bis 2030 zu ersetzen. pic.twitter.com/ItVxXRfjI9
— Verteidigungsministerium (@BMVg_Bundeswehr) March 14, 2022
Perhaps the aircraft that Lockheed Martin needs to deliver on schedule will come from the order reduction that is set to impact the USAF FY 2022 and FY 2023 budgets. The US Air Force purchased 60 F-35As in 2021, 48 units in 2022 and only plans to acquire 33 aircraft in 2023.
See also: USAF FY 2023 budget: to confront China, better quality than quantity
However, it was clarified that the USAF remains committed to the purchase of 1,763 F-35A, and will continue to acquire this aircraft for the next 15 years. The cut (or stretch) of the orders would be to give Lockheed Martin time to solve the problems that recurrently afflict the aircraft, through the implementation of the Technical Refresh 3 modernization program.
This modernization is the prelude to the future F-35 Block 4, which is the standard contracted by the latest customers, such as Canada, which would solve most of the problems and add new and advanced capabilities.
Assuming Lockheed Martin can arrange production to cover the first Block 4 units with cells currently in production that, according to original plans, would have ended up in the USAF; will the company be able to meet the timing of future Block 4 deliveries, or is a bottleneck looming?
