During a television interview on TF1 and France 2 channels on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron surprised everyone with the announcement that he would cede Dassault Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine.

«Tomorrow we will announce the delivery of Mirage 2000-5 that will allow Ukraine to protect its airspace. We will launch training courses. France is forming a coalition with other partners. The important factor is the training time. The target is the end of the year, for aircraft and training,” stated Macron.

????️ Emmanuel Macron annonce sur France 2 et TF1 «une nouvelle coopération» avec l’Ukraine et la cession de plusieurs avions de combat, des Mirage 2000. Paris va aussi mettre en place «un programme de formation des pilotes» ukrainiens. pic.twitter.com/EhbwKXiXTF

— Info France 2 (@infofrance2) June 6, 2024

Volodymyr Zelensky, who is currently in France to participate in the commemorations of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings or “D-Day”, will meet today with Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace to discuss Ukraine’s needs regarding the war with Russia. At the end, the two presidents will hold a joint press conference, during which bilateral agreements will be signed, and the announcement for the Mirage 2000-5 is expected to be made official at that time.

According to La Tribune newspaper, the Ukrainian president will meet with industrialists who regularly supply weapons systems to Kiev. Such is the case of KNDS France and Nexter, for the eventual supply of new Caesar artillery systems and for the production in Ukraine, under French license, of their ammunition.

Volodymyr Zelensky will also meet with the heads of missile manufacturers MBDA (Scalp cruise missiles), Safran (AASM bombs), Thales (GM200 medium-range airspace protection radar), Arquus (Bastion armored vehicles) and Delair (remotely operated munitions).

Strengthening Ukrainian air defense

Not much is known about the deal yet, but we do know that Thales has agreed to deliver an air defense system. The French company issued a press release informing that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense signed a contract for the delivery of a second complete air defense system from Thales.

This additional short-range air defense system consists of a ControlMaster 200 (CM200), which includes a Ground Master 200 air surveillance radar, a radio communications system, the ControlView air defense command and control center along with portable weapon assignment terminals.

The surprise appearance of the Mirage

In September 2023, the Minister of Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, assured that the delivery of Mirage 2000D fighters (precision surface attack version) was neither on the government’s agenda nor one of Kiev’s declared priorities. Instead, it was more efficient to continue to integrate and deliver smart munitions such as A2SM bombs or SCALP cruise missiles on Ukrainian Su-24 and MiG-29 type aircraft, as such combinations had yielded very positive results.

Moreover, taking into account that the Ukrainian Air Force has to make the great effort required for the transition from Soviet fighters to the F-16 (which is also the reason why Kiev rejected the Swedish offer for the JAS-39 Gripen), incorporating Mirage 2000-5 aircraft does not seem practical, since it would imply adding a different and more expensive logistics than the American fighter.

Where would the fighters promised by Macron come from?

As pointed out by the French defense website Zone Militaire, France currently operates about twenty Mirage 2000-5 fighters, distributed between the fighter group 1/2 Cigognes and the 3/11 Corse fighter squadron based in Djibouti, representing between 13 and 15% of the French Air and Space Force combat force, which had to sell part of its own fleet of Rafale fighters to Greece and Croatia, and awaits the arrival of their replacements. This is a significant reduction, which could lead to the dissolution of one of the fighter groups mentioned above.

In addition, for the Mirage to have a significant impact on the fight, they would have to arrive in Ukraine in significant numbers. To this end, Paris could seek to acquire a number of planes from Greece and Qatar, which recently decommissioned their own Mirage 2000-5s and are looking for buyers for part or all of the fleet. As Doha maintains friendly relations with Moscow, Athens is likely to be better disposed to assist Macron in his ambitions to see French fighters with the Ukrainian badge, although these are likely to be the worst condition Mirage 2000s from the three possible sources.

Another point of preoccupation is that of training. There are currently Ukrainian pilots in France taking courses aboard Alpha Jet advanced trainers, and the French president would propose to his Ukrainian counterpart that such personnel stay in the country for additional training on the Mirage 2000-5.

«What is determinant is the training time of the pilots. We are going to propose to President Zelensky that the pilots receive training this summer. It normally takes five to six months. And so that, before the end of the year, you can have pilots and aircraft,” the Macron said during the interview.

Even if many qualifications, such as in-flight refueling, are cut to speed up the process of converting young Ukrainian pilots to the French weapons system, six months seems an inordinately short period of time for them to acquire all the skills necessary to get the most out of the aircraft and its systems. There is a risk of sending pilots with no real experience and poorly prepared into battle. But on the other hand, the needs of war are all immediate, and they wait for no one.