Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States: What to expect for the aviation industry
Trump's second term could bring significant changes to aviation in the United States and worldwide. Tariff proposals could increase production costs and limit exports, but opportunities may also arise with an administration more favorable to private and commercial aviation
The inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States generates uncertainty and expectations in the commercial and private aviation industry. His economic proposals, especially those related to tariffs and regulatory reforms, could significantly impact this strategic sector.
Tariffs and global supply chains
Among Trump's most controversial initiatives is the application of tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on imports. For the aerospace industry, this could translate into increased costs, given that a significant portion of commercial aircraft manufactured in the United States relies on foreign components.
For example, approximately 30% of the parts for the Boeing 787 are imported, including essential components such as engines, landing gear, and wings. These international acquisitions not only optimize costs but also strengthen trade relationships with key markets like Japan and China. An increase in tariffs could make aircraft more expensive and further reduce Boeing's competitiveness against other manufacturers.
Trade relations with China
China represents one of the most important markets for commercial aviation. However, trade tensions during the Trump administration effectively suspended Boeing aircraft sales to that country since 2019. If a trade war were to be reactivated, access to this lucrative market could become even more complicated, negatively impacting U.S. exports.
In 2018, 24% of Boeing’s deliveries were destined for Chinese airlines, but in subsequent years, these deliveries dropped dramatically. This scenario presents major risks for the trade balance of the aerospace sector, which generated a $47 billion surplus in 2023.
Policies supporting private aviation
Trump, a frequent user of private aviation, might implement measures to benefit this segment. A reevaluation of IRS audits targeting private jet owners is anticipated, as well as the reinstatement of full tax deductions for accelerated depreciation.
Additionally, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement could ease climate-related pressures on private aviation, reducing protests and demands associated with ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria. This would directly benefit operators and manufacturers of executive aircraft.
Regulatory and labor reforms
A change in administration will inevitably bring new leadership to the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and the Department of Transportation. This could result in reforms to address the shortage of critical personnel, such as air traffic controllers, and optimize the sector's management.
Similarly, government hiring policies could be relaxed, broadening access to more qualified candidates and reducing bottlenecks in the industry.
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