Global trade is expected to keep expanding over the next five years despite the restrictive tariff policies announced by the United States, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025, presented by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.
The report forecasts that global merchandise trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% between 2024 and 2029, slightly outpacing the previous decade’s growth. However, if the recently re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump fully implements the proposed tariffs and other countries respond with similar measures, growth could slow significantly—though not come to a halt.
Key Drivers of Global Trade Growth
India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are expected to be the primary engines of global trade expansion during this period. India is projected to be the third-largest contributor to absolute trade growth, accounting for 6% of the global increase, trailing only China (12%) and the United States (10%). According to the study, these countries stand out both in growth rate and absolute trade volume expansion.
At the regional level, South and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and ASEAN nations will see the fastest trade volume growth, with annual rates between 5% and 6%. Other regions are expected to grow at a more moderate pace, ranging between 2% and 4% annually.
Trends in Global Trade Flows
Despite discussions about reshoring and nearshoring, the average distance traveled by traded goods hit a record 5,000 kilometers in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of trade occurring within major regions dropped to 51%, suggesting that significant regionalization has yet to take hold.
Regarding U.S.-China trade tensions, direct trade between the two countries has declined from 3.5% of global trade in 2016 to 2.6% in 2024. However, this does not indicate a full decoupling. The U.S. still relies heavily on Chinese products, both through direct imports and indirect imports via third countries that use Chinese components.
Expert Insights on Trade Resilience
Steven A. Altman, lead researcher and Director of DHL’s Globalization Initiative at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future, emphasized:
“While threats to the global trade system must be taken seriously, world trade has shown remarkable resilience due to its economic and social benefits.”
Altman also noted that, despite U.S. trade restrictions, most countries are unlikely to follow suit, as the economic costs—particularly for smaller economies—would be too high.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, highlighted the continued potential for trade growth in both advanced and emerging economies, pointing out how global trade has withstood financial crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent trade conflicts.
DHL Trade Atlas 2025: A Comprehensive Global Trade Tool
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian from the NYU Stern School of Business, is an interactive and free tool that provides detailed analysis and trends on nearly 200 countries and territories, covering over 99% of global trade.
The online interactive version allows users to customize trade analyses by country, region, and specific goods, offering valuable insights for businesses and policymakers.
Download document: DHL Trade Atlas 2025
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Contando la aviación desde marzo del año 2000. Fundador y Managing Editor de Aviacionline.
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