Is Italy interested in an “Italianized” version of the Kawasaki P-1 as its future MPA-ASW aircraft?

Rumors are circulating in the defense community that Italy may be interested in the Kawasaki P-1 as its next maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare (MPA/ASW) aircraft. According to specialized journalist Gabriele Molinelli, the Italian proposal would consist of acquiring the Japanese P-1s stripped of their original electronics and mission systems, with the intention of integrating them with Italian-origin technology.

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There are rumours going around of Italy potentially procuring japanese P-1 airframes for its maritime patrol aircraft needs. «Green» or semi-green airframes, specifically, to then outfit with relevant italian systems where appropriate. Sounds pretty wild, but would be fascinating pic.twitter.com/Y9S9fGHvCO

— Gabriele Molinelli (@Gabriel64869839) December 12, 2024

Urgent need for ASW capability

Italy is looking to incorporate a new maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) by 2029 to bolster its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capability in response to increased submarine activity in the Mediterranean. Currently, maritime surveillance is handled by the Leonardo P-72A, an aircraft that, while performing patrol functions, lacks ASW capabilities, a shortcoming that has become critical.

The operational requirements for the new MPA include advanced ASW and anti-surface warfare (ASuW) capabilities, multispectral intelligence, secure long-range connectivity, resilience in hostile environments, day and night operations in all weather conditions, as well as greater endurance and time on station compared to the P-72A. The alternatives being considered by Italy are the Boeing P-8A Poseidon, the Kawasaki P-1, and the Leonardo C-27J ASW.

A Tough Competition

The Kawasaki P-1 is one of two high-performance maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare aircraft developed in recent decades to replace the historic P-3 Orion. The other contender is the US Boeing P-8A Poseidon. In the coming years, the European A321 MPA, selected by France, will also join the competition, though this option is not part of the preliminary shortlist being considered by the Italian authorities.

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The Boeing P-8A has been the preferred choice for several countries, including multiple European nations, for their long-range maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare (MPA/ASW) needs. This preference is driven by its adoption by the US Navy, ensuring continuous product evolution, interoperability with US forces, and access to its extensive logistics chain. Additionally, the P-8A is based on the widely operated Boeing 737-800 platform, simplifying logistic support and providing access to an already established global supply chain. In this competition, the Kawasaki P-1 has attempted to gain market share, but so far, the dominance of the US model has been unquestionable.

See also: Japan develops new electronic warfare aircraft based on the Kawasaki P-1

An “Italianized” P-1?

The possibility that Italy might opt for the Kawasaki P-1 and integrate Italian-made sensors and armament is mainly explained within the framework of offset agreements and joint development agreements between Italy and Japan, which are part of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) led by the United Kingdom. However, the option of «Italianizing» the Kawasaki P-1 is considered a remote possibility. Nonetheless, this idea could gain support from Tokyo, which might see this opportunity as a way to position its aircraft in the international market and expand its customer base.