NATO Crisis: Germany Considers European Nuclear Deterrence Without the U.S.
Are the F-35 stealth fighters viable without B61 bombs? Germany questions its nuclear strategy amid possible U.S. shift
In Germany, doubts are beginning to emerge about whether, under a Donald Trump administration, the United States would honor NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense in the event of a conflict with Russia. In a hypothetical scenario where U.S. armed forces withdraw from Europe to redeploy in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as part of their China containment strategy, Washington might even consider removing its tactical B61 nuclear bombs, some of which are currently stored on German soil.
These bombs play a key role in European nuclear deterrence, and the need for a modern platform to deploy them was what ultimately convinced the German government to acquire 35 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets to replace the Luftwaffe's Panavia Tornado aircraft assigned to this mission. However, with Trump’s recent statements about the war in Ukraine, NATO, and European security, this strategic plan could be at risk.
German Concerns About NATO’s Future
Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor, recently expressed concerns about Trump’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense.
"We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump may no longer unconditionally support NATO's mutual defense commitment," Merz said in an interview with a German television channel on Friday. "That is why, in my opinion, it is crucial for Europeans to make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own."
According to Politico, Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the current frontrunner in the polls ahead of Sunday’s elections, publicly acknowledged the possibility of talks with France and the United Kingdom—the two European nuclear powers—regarding a new nuclear-sharing agreement or the extension of their nuclear security to Germany. He also admitted that French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly offered this option to Berlin, although German governments have so far avoided taking a stance on the matter.
The Controversial Replacement of Germany’s Nuclear Tornado Fleet
After years of debates, delays, and even minor scandals, in 2022, the German Ministry of Defense announced its decision to replace its aging Panavia Tornado fleet with a mixed force of Eurofighter Typhoons and Lockheed Martin F-35s. The F-35 was chosen to preserve the Luftwaffe’s nuclear deterrence capability. Among the other options considered—the F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Typhoon—the F-35A was the only aircraft certified for launching the U.S. B61 nuclear bomb, of which Germany has around 20 under NATO’s nuclear-sharing agreement.
However, this decision was based on the assumption that the U.S. would remain committed to NATO and its nuclear deterrence infrastructure in Europe. With Trump back on the political scene, this certainty has started to waver—and with it, the very reason for the Luftwaffe’s F-35 acquisition could be in question.
Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent?
If, in the worst-case scenario, Washington decided to disengage from European defense and withdraw its B61 nuclear bombs, what options would Germany have to maintain its nuclear deterrence capability?
Currently, France is the only European nation with an operational tactical nuclear weapons capability. Its airborne nuclear strike force relies on ASMPA supersonic cruise missiles, which are launched from Mirage 2000N and Rafale fighter jets. However, integrating this French nuclear weapon into the F-35 would be technically impractical, as the ASMPA does not fit inside the aircraft’s internal bays, meaning it would have to be carried externally—compromising the F-35’s stealth advantage, which is its primary penetration capability.
Another option would be to adapt the ASMPA’s nuclear warhead, the TNA (up to 300 kilotons of explosive yield), to develop a bomb or missile compatible with the F-35’s internal weapons bays. While technically feasible, this would face challenges due to the complex control and security systems of each nuclear weapon, requiring a lengthy and rigorous certification process.
However, the main obstacle is not technical but political and security-related. Given the current geostrategic tensions between Washington and Brussels, it is difficult to imagine that the highest military and political authorities in France and the U.S. would trust each other enough to share the classified codes necessary to integrate a nuclear weapon onto another country’s fighter jet. In this scenario, the Luftwaffe must ask itself whether it is still worth maintaining a small fleet of F-35s that may no longer serve their intended purpose.
A more feasible alternative could be a security agreement between Paris and Berlin to adapt the ASMPA-R and its future variants for Germany’s Eurofighters. This solution could potentially interest other European nations operating the Typhoon, such as Spain and Italy, if Europe’s security situation were to deteriorate significantly.
The Future of European Nuclear Deterrence
The idea of an autonomous European nuclear deterrent, based on non-U.S. nuclear weapons, could become a strategic necessity amid growing global tensions and uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic alliance.
Nevertheless, this process is not without challenges, both technical and political. Washington's leadership and the interdependence between NATO's nuclear weapons systems have been fundamental pillars in the cohesion of the alliance and its deterrence capability. However, in a scenario where strategic certainties are rapidly fading, Europe faces a crossroads: either it strengthens its military autonomy and redefines its shared nuclear strategy to ensure collective security without U.S. oversight, or it opts for a more fragmented approach, where each nation assumes individual responsibility for its own defense.
AUTOR
Apasionado por la aviación, la historia, la política y la defensa. Editor-in-Chief en Aviacionline Defensa, combinando estos conocimiento para ofrecer un contenido valioso sobre temas estratégicos y de seguridad.
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