Two missiles struck near the Polish town of Przewodow, 6.5 km from the Ukrainian border, killing two farmers. Does this represent a casus belli?

This situation, of which all the details are not yet known, is unleashing in the social networks all kinds of speculations and reactions of exaltation and fear; as to whether this event, for now isolated, may lead Poland to invoke NATO’s Article 5 of collective defense and instigate a real state of war with Russia.

The event and its context

At approximately 22hs (local time) from Poland, two munitions were reported to have hit the town of Przewodow, in the eastern province of Lublin, less than 10 km from the western border of Urania.

The incident occurred while Russian forces were conducting a new missile attack on Ukrainian electrical facilities.

See also: Russia once again attacks Ukrainian power infrastructure with missiles

On his official Telegram account, President Volodymir Zelenski confirmed that Russia launched a total of 90 missiles, which were directed against critical infrastructure in different parts of the country, including in the vicinity of the Polish border.

As a result of these attacks, about 10 million Ukrainians are without electricity supply, most of them located in Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Kyiv and Lviv oblasts. Communications and water supply are also affected.

According to Zelenski, of the 90 missiles launched mainly by Russian strategic bombers, 70 were intercepted by air defense systems. In particular he highlights the effectiveness of the NASAMS system recently supplied by the U.S. performing 10 launches with 10 shoot-downs. Some 10 Iranian Shahed 136 type drones were also shot down.

Cross accusations

Faced with such a delicate situation, the Polish Prime Minister urgently convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs. Polish fighter jets were deployed to step up airspace control on the Ukrainian border.

U.S. media, citing intelligence sources, blamed Russia for the attack, but later a Pentagon spokesman told the press that they are aware of reports that two Russian missiles hit a site inside Poland near the Ukrainian border, but that they have no further information at this time to corroborate that claim and are investigating it.

.@PentagonPresSec: "We are aware of the press reports alleging that two Russian missiles have struck a location inside Poland near the Ukraine border. I can tell you that we don't have any information at this time to corroborate those reports and are looking into this further." pic.twitter.com/tLVQAZsdty

— CSPAN (@cspan) November 15, 2022

At the same time, Russian sources claim that they did not carry out any missile attack against Poland, and that according to their preliminary data, the Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile systems are responsible for the death of the Polish citizens, which, unable to hit their designated targets (possibly Kalibr or Kh-101 cruise missiles), lost control and fell in Przewodow.

From the photos released so far, it can only be stated that there was indeed an impact of a warhead munition, given that it left a significant crater. The images also show some fragments attributed to the missiles, but not enough to determine the type of weapon.

https://twitter.com/Mateusz94247741/status/1592577413040390144?s=20&t=eoTaE6Fj1bwJAAifeUC6UA

Are we on the verge of World War III?

That is the question on everyone’s lips. And the answer we should all give is «let’s hope not!».

From Brussels they said that NATO’s response to what, for now is considered an isolated incident, will depend on Warsaw’s statements on the ownership of the fallen missiles in Przevodov. Several governments of the European Baltic countries, members of NATO, showed their support and solidarity with Poland, and demanded a more assertive action on the part of the Alliance.

Latest news from Poland is most concerning. We are consulting closely with Poland and other Allies. Estonia is ready to defend every inch of NATO territory. We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland ??

— Estonian MFA ?? | ? #StandWithUkraine (@MFAestonia) November 15, 2022

Much depends on how the Polish Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs expresses itself. But it is difficult to think, factually, that Poland alone could invoke Article 5. It does not seem likely that this situation, whether due to a failure of Russian cruise missile navigation systems, or failure of Ukrainian air defense missiles, or even if it was a deliberate attack, to warn, intimidate or gauge the West’s ability to respond, could alone be taken as a casus belli. Whether Article 4 of formal consultation between member states is likely to be invoked.

Whatever decision is taken, since it will affect the fate of Europe and beyond, it will be consensual with all member states of the alliance.

-UPDATE-

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reported that preliminary studies of the missile debris found in the impact area indicate that it was a Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile, fired to intercept an attacking Russian missile.

«Since the start of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, NATO has increased vigilance across our eastern flank,» NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after the meeting. He stated that we need to await the outcome of the ongoing investigation, but «we have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack and we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO». He added: «Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks. But let me clear: this is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.«